UFC Vegas 40 Odds, Picks & Bets Overview

A mid-shot of Aspen Ladd ready to start his fight in the UFC.

Aspen Ladd is seen prior to his mixed martial arts fight at UFC Fight Night, Saturday, December 7, 2019, in Washington, DC Ladd won via a 3rd round stoppage. (AP Photo / Gregory Payan)

  • Aspen Ladd steps up on week’s notice to fight Norma Dumont in main event
  • Andrei Arlovski returns to the co-main event
  • See odds, picks and betting overview for the full UFC Vegas 40 main card, below

UFC remains at UFC Apex in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 40 on Saturday, October 16. In the main event, Aspen Ladd switches to featherweight to face Norma Dumont on short notice after Holly Holm was forced out of the fight. Ladd is a small favorite of -150 while Dumont is an underdog of +130.

The UFC Vegas 40 main card airs live on ESPN + at 7 p.m. EST. The table below shows the odds for the main card at DraftKings, followed by the best bets.

Be sure to check out the latest sports betting promotions before placing your bets for UFC Vegas 39.

UFC Vegas 40 odds

FighterOdds
Aspen Ladd-150
Norma Dumont+130
FighterOdds
Andrei Arlovsky-115
Carlos felipe-105
FighterOdds
Jim miller-190
Erick González+160
FighterOdds
Manon Fiorot-220
Mayra Bueno Silva+180
FighterOdds
Julien marquez-225
Jordan wright+180

Odds as of October 11 at DraftKings.

How will Ladd do at featherweight?

Aspen Ladd is currently the third bantamweight, but she hasn’t fought since December 2019. She had knee surgery and was later due to return in July against Macy Chiasson, but her opponent was forced out of the fight. Then, just two weeks ago at UFC Vegas 38, Ladd had a scary weight loss and missed weight and the fight was called off, but she will now move up a weight class to face Norma Dumont. which is a relative unknown to many MMA fans.

Ladd & Dumont’s recent fights

Yana Kuntiskaya, victory by TKOFight 1Felicia Spencer, win by decision
Germaine de Randamie, defeated by KOFight 2Ashlee Evans-Smith, decision win
Sijara Eubanks, winner by decisionFight 3Megan Anderson, defeated by KO
Tonya Evinger, victory by TKOFight 4Mariana Morais, win by decision

When Dumont made her UFC debut in February 2020, few people knew much about her as she hadn’t fought since 2018 and was starched by Megan Anderson and knocked out in the first round. However, she then tried to move up to bantamweight and ran out of weight for her win over Evans-Smith but her standout performance was her last fight where she beat Felicia Spencer by decision and could now be a win away from herself. beat for UFC gold at featherweight.

It’s a fascinating showdown as we are still learning about Dumont, while Ladd is the Known Merchandise, but there are a ton of questions about him. The impact of consecutive weight reductions on her is a major question, as well as how she will fare at the featherweight and whether or not either of them has cardio to pass 25 minutes.

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Ladd & Dumont Statistics

26Age31
5’6 ″Height5’7 ″
66 ″To reach67 ″
3UFC Finishes0

Aspen Ladd and Norma Dumont both have grinding styles where they seek to take down their opponents and beat them to the ground. Who will be able to implement this game plan will likely decide the winner of this fight.

At first, I expect them to fight each other and feel for each other. Halfway through the first round, I expect you to see Ladd make a takedown and get it because I think she’s the better wrestler and will be stronger in this fight. Once on the ground, Ladd should be able to land on vicious ground and beat, and eventually, in the second or third round, she will find the TKO finish on the ground.

Picks: Aspen Ladd (-150)

Is Arlovski still going back in time?

Andrei Arlovski has been fighting as a pro-MMA fighter since 1999 and will face Carlos Felipe, born in 1995 on Saturday. From 2016 to 2017, many had written off Arlovski as he was on a five-game losing streak and then again in 2018-2019 when he was winless in four fights. However, he has seen some success in recent times as he is 3-1 in his last four games and now gets another player in sight with Carlos Felipe.

Recent fights between Arlovski and Felipe

Chase Sherman, wins by decisionFight 1Jake Collier, wins by decision
Tom Aspinall, lost by submissionFight 2Justin Tafa, wins by decision
Tanner Boser, win by decisionFight 3Yorgan de Castro, win by decision
Philipe Lins, wins by decisionFight 4Sergey Spivak, defeated by decision

This fight should be a kickboxing fight because Arlovski and Felipe love to box and keep him standing. Felipe’s Brazilian also speaks as he fights and I expect him to land the toughest punches and exceed Arlovski’s volume. Lately the veteran Arlovski hasn’t thrown enough and it will hurt him here as Felipe will do enough to get the decision victory.

Pick: Carlos Felipe (-105)

Other UFC Vegas 40 picks:

  • Jim Miller (-180): Miller should be able to beat the fight and secure a submission win in the first round to get back to the win column.
  • Manon Fiorot (-220): Fiorot looks legitimate and I expect her to piece Silva back together and take a TKO victory in the third round.
  • Julian Marquez (-225): For me it’s a lag and Marquez will land a big blow early and KO Wright in the first round.

Cole shelton

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Sports editor

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