MMA fighting styles

+600 KOs and +850 submission props from top picks

Dana White’s Contender Series returns with its Week 8 event on Tuesday, where 10 UFC prospects will be looking to get signed.

They are part of the five-fight lineup that kicks off at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) on ESPN+.

We’re focusing on two fights – each with multiple betting angles – for this week’s event.

Check out these best card bets below.

(And don’t forget you can track your DWCS bets in the Action app.)

Women’s Flyweight: Bruna Brasil vs. Marnic Mann

Women’s flyweights Bruna Brazil and Marnic Mann square off on the women’s side in the second fight of the night.

Brasil is a former professional soccer player, regional kickboxing champion, and multi-talented MMA finisher with over 50% of her wins to the finish. She also has an equal share of submissions and knockouts among her wings (two of each).

Mann represents Montana MMA, and she will bring a lower center of gravity, offensive grappling, and pressure against the fence.

I’ve been burned multiple times this season betting on women’s MMA fights to not go the distance, but showing +170 for FDGTD in a fight in which both athletes have over 50% finish rates and a dynamic clash of styles doesn’t make much sense to me.

Brasil has two submission wins on his record while Mann has one submission win (as a pro) and a second by rear choke as an amateur.

Brasil is a kickboxer first and foremost, and Mann will be looking to force wrestling and grappling exchanges. But the greatest danger she has run in recent fights has been putting her head in dangerous guillotine attempts, the submission of choice for Brazil.

I think this fight is mispriced to end in a +450 submission, and I don’t hate a shot at the favorite (Brazil) to win by submission since Mann is likely to shoot in guillotine attempts as a athlete with a much smaller frame and shorter arms.

Prediction: Bruna Brasil beats. Marnic Mann via submission – Round 2 (guillotine choke)

Paris: Brasil-Mann is not going to the decision (+170) | Brasil-Mann finishes by submission (+450) | Brazil win by submission (+850)

Bantamweight: Allan Begosso vs. Farid Basharat

Farid Basharat and his brother, Javid, have the world at their feet this weekend. For Basharat Bros., winning is everything, and that’s been backed up by their performance so far.

Farid, the younger (25) of the two, is 10-0 between pro and amateur competition while 27-year-old brother Javid (already in the UFC) amassed a 13-0 record between the pro and amateur competition.

However, Farid Basharat didn’t have an easy matchup at this week’s Contender Series event: He’s tasked with battling Brazilian finishing machine Allan Begosso, an aggressive submission grappler with great power in both hands.

The line movement for this fight has been a fascinating tussle, with the betting public seeming interested in the underdog shot at Begosso as he carries great power, he shows aggression in all positions and his cardio has been checked out for a 25 minute regional. championship fight.

Sharp markets at home and abroad are undercutting bids on Basharat, trailing around the open -260 plus or minus 10 cents either way. Begosso to win by KO seems to be the most popular bet on the underdog as the KO line opened +800 and nearly halved across the entire market, sitting at an average market price of +550 with +400s and +500s showing the sharpest markets.

As for the fight going or not going the distance, the fight is just not going the distance at -165 in the sharpest markets with a market average of -195. Several books have the juice “under 2.5 rounds” to about the same extent as the fight not to go the distance, so several bookies indicate that this fight is likely to end inside the distance. This is also supported by the extremely low lines on Basharat Inside the Distance, which can be found chalked across multiple books and a market average of +100.

For me, this fight will be decided by Basharat’s more process-oriented clinical approach as well as his superiority in wrestling. I expect Basharat to find dominant positions, position himself and capitalize with the ground and pound for a stoppage through the buildup of strikes or pulling off a smooth submission in transition.

Begosso is the most aggressive submission chaser, but I think that will lead to positional errors that someone like Basharat can punish.

I have three betting angles below, although I still consider FDGTD (-165) as a hedge.

Prediction: Farid Basharat defeats Allan Begosso via TKO (ground and pound) – Round 2

Betting: Basharat (+230 or better) | Basharat Wins Inside Distance (+125) | Basharat via KO (+600)