We’re back with a fully loaded Contender series this week, with potentially violent combat, fun insights, and interesting style clashes.
Let’s take a look at every fight in Week 6 of the Dana White Contender Series and the potential betting opportunities on the table.
As always, DWCS events air on ESPN+ (8 p.m. ET) with 10 fighters looking to impress UFC President White and earn a contract to fight in the world’s biggest MMA promotion.
(Remember you can track your Contender Series bets in the Action app.)
Featherweight: Alex Morgan vs. Blake Bilder
The first fight of the evening will be contested at 145 pounds between the best Canadian prospect Alex Morgan and the American Blake Bilder.
Morgan has fought a host of UFC-level fighters, including Charles Jourdain and TJ Laramie, in the TKO promotion in Canada. Bilder, meanwhile, recently secured his CFFC title by submission, so he will be looking to push his finish rate above the 70% mark.
Morgan opened as a favorite of around -145 and took action at the betting window, pushing it to a current mid-market price of -212. Bilder, on the other hand, opened as a +125 underdog before climbing up to its current market average of +175, meaning we saw a correction of 50 cents or more on both favorite and underdog moneylines. in this contest.
Morgan is a seasoned kickboxer who will look to keep the fight straight and test the chin of Bilder, who has been dropped multiple times during his seven-fight professional career. Bilder will be looking to test the submission grappling of Morgan, who has been submitted in three of his four losses.
Prediction: Alex Morgan beats. Blake Builder via KO – Round 1
Bets: Either fighter wins by submission (+330) | Alex Morgan will win in the distance (+110)
Women’s Strawweight: Viktoriya Dudakova vs. Maria Silva
The second fight of the evening is the only women’s fight on the card.
The bout will be contested in the 115-pound strawweight division and will feature DWCS returning talent Maria Silva and her opponent, Viktoriya Dudakova.
Dudakova fought on a fairly low-level regional stage, but she picked up grappling-based victories, winning all of her bouts from distance and many by submission in the very first round.
Silva, on the other hand, is primarily a striker who has improved her grappling over time and recently found a submission win in the third round of her fight against Ares FC.
Silva opened as a -180 favorite there and saw virtual one-way traffic in the market, with his average online price of silver swelling to -295, a correction of more than a dollar since opening smoothly. Dudakova, on the other hand, bet from a +155 opener to a +233 underdog, a nearly 10% correction on her implied win probability.
I expect Silva to be brought back to this place for another shot at the UFC contract, and I think she can. Silva is the most physically imposing woman on tape despite her slightly smaller stature.
Prediction: Maria Silva beats. Viktoriya Dudakova by submission – Round 2
Bet: Maria Silva wins inside the distance (+165)
Lightweights: Mateusz Rebecki vs. Rodrigo Lidio
The third fight of the night features two very talented lightweight prospects in Mateusz Rebecki and Rodrigo Lidio.
Rebecki likes to crash forward while swinging big punches so he can wrap his hands around his opponents waist, take them for a spin and put on his BJJ black belt and quell the pressure on his opponents.
Lidio, on the other hand, is a talented defensive grappler with deceptive power in his lanky frame. In many of his fights, he loses on the scorecards or spends much of the controlled fight before finding his killing blow.
This fight is another example of a favorite that acted on this card – but to a much lesser extent. Rebecki opened at -230, and he was betting just above the -250 mark across the board. Lidio, meanwhile, opened as a +195 underdog and can now be had up to +215.
The fight price is also set to end inside the distance at a high clip, the average market price on the fight does not go to the decision sitting at -275, above the favorite’s money line .
The books strongly correlate Lidio’s money line with his knockout prop for good reason, as the vast majority of Lidio’s winning equity in this fight will come from his power meters. However, Lidio has already been submitted, and I think Rebecki is one of the best, most dynamic and threatening players Lidio has ever faced.
Prediction: Matuesz Rebecki beats. Rodrigo Lidio by submission – Round 1
Bet: Matuesz Rebecki wins by submission (+400)
Middleweights: Matej Penaz vs. Sedriques Dumas
Then we move on to the evening’s co-main event, where Matej Penaz will take on Sedriques Dumas in the middleweight division.
Penaz is a former Glory kickboxer with a huge frame for the division, long punches and solid cardio to last 15 minutes. Dumas also comes across as a dynamic kicker, but he’s the most likely side to pursue takedowns and wrestling exchanges in this fight, especially if the strike goes badly for Dumas, as I imagine it may.
Dumas looked considerably smaller than his opponent in the weight class, and that may explain Penaz’s status as a -140 favorite going into the open. Penaz has now bet on a market average of -170. As for Dumas, he opened a short underdog of +125 and was bet at an average market price of +140, so the market adjustments were much lower on this fight.
I believe Dumas will have a hard time advancing his wrestling game in this fight, and if I’m right, I think he will have a hard time winning the fight. Dumas has great power, powerful kicks and a nasty outside low kick, but he’s a bit predictable at times and his defense crumbles in extended rallies. I think Penaz will be looking to take his time, take it apart and find the finish.
Prediction: Matej Penaz beats. Sedric Dumas via TKO – Round 3
Betting: Patej Penaz (-163) | Patej Penaz wins in the distance (+165)
Welterweight: Yusaku Kinoshita vs. Jose Henrique
The final fight of the evening will be contested by two lightweight prospects younger than me. Neither man has reached their 23rd birthday yet, but that hasn’t stopped them from pursuing their UFC dreams.
Kinoshita quickly racked up five first-round finishes as a pro, preferring to land hard strikes. But he’s not averse to pulling off a quick takedown or dominating an opponent on the mat. His opponent, Henrique, is undefeated, but his last fight was well within the margins of his opponent’s victory as Henrique was nearly knocked out in the second round.
Henrique will have a massive height advantage in this fight, coming in at 6-foot-5 in the 170-pound welterweight division, a feat of epic proportions.
Kinoshita opened for this fight at -140, and he saw the bulk of the betting action, steadily dropping to his current market average of -205. The comeback on the Henrique side started as low as +120, and it can now be reached as high as +180 on some pounds, another massive market correction of over 50 cents.
As far as totals go, this fight should once again end inside the distance at a clip of -225.
I expect it to be a good bit, but there are a lot of open questions about these fighters that make the matchup hard to predict. Kinoshita is yet to make it through the first round as a pro, and his opponent has only had one fight so far against top-tier opposition, and he probably should have lost the split decision.
Now add to that the fact that 6-foot-5 Henrique is cutting the pounds for the first time, and you have a recipe for disaster or a huge advantage in the fight.
Prediction: Yusuaka Kinoshita defeats. Jose Henrique via KO – Round 1
Bet: Kinoshita wins inside the distance (+110) or pass.